On Sunday, Jan. 16, the Brooklyn Nets announced that an MRI revealed a sprained MCL in Kevin Durant’s left knee.
According to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, “there’s optimism” within the Nets organization that there will be a four-to-six-week timeline for Durant’s rehab and eventual return to action.
MORE: Where does Durant rank among NBA’s best players?
It should go without saying that the Nets will be greatly impacted by the absence of Durant, who is averaging a league-leading 29.3 points to go along with 7.4 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game. Durant’s standing as one of the best players in the NBA means his absence will be felt across the league.
Brooklyn is scheduled to play 17 games ahead of the All-Star Break, which Wojnarowski reports is a “realistic benchmark” for Durant’s return. With an MVP candidate set to miss at least a month of action, there could be a league-wide ripple effect.
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The ripple effect of Kevin Durant’s absence
Brooklyn Nets
Let’s start with the obvious.
Durant has been the leading force for Brooklyn this season, with his scoring average at its highest since his MVP season of 2013-14. As such, KD has vaulted himself atop MVP conversations because of his impact on a nightly basis.
After battling injuries during the 2020-21 season, Durant had missed just six of the Nets’ first 42 games before going down with a knee injury. Brooklyn is 3-3 in Durant’s absence.
To take a more focused look, the Nets have had a net rating of 4.5 with Durant on the floor this season, while their net rating with Durant off the floor is -0.9, according to NBA.com Stats. Because context matters, a large chunk of those numbers were before Kyrie Irving was permitted to re-join the Nets on a part-time basis.
MORE: How Kyrie looked in his first game back
In the three road games since Irving’s return, Brooklyn’s net rating in 31 non-Durant minutes is 10.6, slightly better than the net rating of 8.9 in the 113 minutes that Durant has played. The number is admittedly impacted by the Nets’ rout of the Bulls in which a number of reserves stepped up.
That said, it’s important to note that 12 of the Nets’ next 17 games are on the road and Irving is eligible in all but one, a visit to the Knicks. With Irving and James Harden available to play in about two-thirds of the games in Durant’s absence, the two will have plenty of opportunities to compensate.
Eastern Conference Playoff picture
At the time of Durant’s injury, the Nets trailed the Bulls by a half-game for first place in the East standings. Conversely, the Nets hold just a two-game lead over the sixth-placed Cavaliers.
Should the Nets struggle in Durant’s extended absence, the Eastern Conference Playoff picture could look vastly different with around 20 games remaining in the regular season.
With respect to Irving’s availability, the Nets could benefit from falling to fifth or sixth in the East, given they would not have home court advantage and Irving would be available for four games of a potential seven-game series, rather than three games in a series in which they were the top seed.
The tightly-contested race among the East’s top-six teams will certainly be impacted by Durant’s absence. It’s simply a matter of how much it will be impacted.
All-Star Game
It’s not as important in the grand scheme of things, but Durant appeared to be on his way to becoming the East’s leading vote-getter for a second consecutive year.
Per the timeline provided by Wojnarowski, Durant should not be expected to participate in the 2022 NBA All-Star Game, but what if he receives more votes than anyone else? Durant was in a similar position last year, as an injury caused him to miss the 2021 NBA All-Star Game as the leading vote-getter.
MORE: Takeaways from second round of NBA All-Star voting returns
Durant served as a captain in the All-Star Draft but was replaced in the starting lineup by Celtics forward Jayson Tatum and Pacers forward Domantas Sabonis was added to the game as an injury replacement.
Due to Durant’s injury, a player like Sabonis, Hornets forward Miles Bridges or Raptors forward Pascal Siakam could receive All-Star consideration as an injury replacement, which would be quite the honor for each of the aforementioned players.
The MVP race
In TSN’s most recent MVP ladder, Durant came in at second behind two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo.
With Durant’s recent injury, he will have totaled at least 20 absences by the season’s end, which will likely rule him out of MVP consideration. As a result, MVP candidates such as Bulls forward DeMar DeRozan, Nuggets center Nikola Jokic and 76ers center Joel Embiid will move up in MVP talks.
The race won’t be as fun without KD, but it should still be just as intriguing with potential first-timers in DeRozan and Embiid as well as a potential back-to-back award winner in Jokic.
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