Baltimore Makes a Microscopic Ripple by Signing Adam Frazier

The Orioles made a low-key signing Thursday evening, inking second baseman Adam Frazier to a one-year, $8 million contract. Frazier struggled in 2022 after being acquired by the Mariners last fall for two minor leaguers, Corey Rosier and Ray Kerr. After a .305/.368/.411, 3.6 WAR season in 2021 that looked as if he had established a new level of play, he spent much of this past season in a fight with the .600 OPS line, a battle from which he narrowly proved victorious.

Frazier will take over as Baltimore’s starting second baseman; the main draw for his service is that he was a bit less disappointing in 2022 than the incumbent second baseman, current free agent Rougned Odor. In that light, one could make an argument that this signing represents an incremental improvement at a reasonable cost. I’m not entirely convinced of this. The O’s don’t start 2023 with the same in-house options as they did last spring, as Gunnar Henderson’s meteoric rise gives them another infielder, and one with massive upside. So the question is whether Frazier is actually much of an upgrade, if at all, over the players who would have likely received playing time at second otherwise.

To get an idea if 2022 or 2021 are closer to some abstract concept of Frazier’s “true” ability, let’s start with the ZiPS projection for him in 2023.

The good news is that Frazier is projected to bounce back somewhat to league-average levels of play. Steamer is generally in the same neighborhood, though it likes his bat a bit more and his defense a bit less. Alas, his projected rebound season is closer to ’22 than ’21, no doubt in large part because some of the fuel powering the latter was a BABIP more than 30 points better than his career average, as well as the fact that he just celebrated his 31st birthday a couple of days ago.

Frazier is one of the softest-hitting players in baseball, with an exit velocity that tied for ninth-worst among 232 qualifiers in 2022. But that was also true when he was playing well; he was tied for ninth-worst during his excellent 2021 season. In doing so little damage in terms of power when he actually hits a ball, his offensive value is largely tied into hitting a lot of balls and maintaining a high BABIP. Simply put, he hits a lot of fly balls that go nowhere useful; he hit .110 and slugged .257, both in the bottom five among players with 50 fly balls hit in 2022. And 114 fly balls is a big number (51st in the majors) for a player who rarely hits one with any kind of authority.

Now, this may sound odd considering how negative this analysis is, but there’s absolutely nothing wrong with the Frazier contract. A roughly league-average player for $8 million is a solid value for a team in need of those services. I’d certainly love to have him at this price if I were the White Sox, and think he’s a better option at second base than whatever bizarre chimera of forgettable players they go with there. My problem with this signing really doesn’t have much to do with Frazier himself but more to do with the Orioles, where they are in the rebuild, and what their needs are.

Frazier’s projection is fine, and not “fine” in the sense of a certain memeable dog sitting in a kitchen with a mug. But the Orioles already have options at second base that are just about on the same general level; this is not an organizational weakness. Here are the ZiPS projections for all (or at least most) of the plausible O’s options at second (I’m leaving out Henderson):

There are near as many average-to-below-average second base options in Baltimore as joints to pick up a good pit beef with onions and horseradish (OK, a bit of hyperbole). The Orioles need many things — and many much bigger things — and Frazier’s skillset isn’t really one of them. And as someone who grew up in Baltimore, it pains me to see the Yankees pick up Carlos Rodón, a player who does represent a gigantic need for the Orioles and one of the magnitude that the team should be looking at. Urías will be needed (as of now) at third base, but I don’t think it’s obvious that Frazier is clearly better in 2023, even with a modest comeback, than Mateo, Westburg, or Vavra.

The O’s finished the season at 83–79 and have one of the best young talent stables in baseball. This farm system is so stocked at present that even after graduating elite, all-world prospect Adley Rutschman to the majors, their ranking only dropped to second-best in baseball in our last Board update. With all this talent coming up and years of very little spending, the O’s could absolutely justify a far more aggressive offseason than we’ve seen so far.

The 2022 and ’23 seasons should have been the Bildungsroman for the O’s — the coming of age of a team shifting from rebuilding mode to that of a serious contender. Or, to put it differently, the Bond villain reveal moment, when suddenly the master plan comes into view, whether it’s trigging a nuclear war on a global scale, destroying humanity to establish a perfect society under the sea or in space, or raising the price of water in Bolivia. I’ve been saying for years that “now is not the time” for the Orioles to make a big splash at bidding on top talent in free agency. But now is the time. Build on that 83-win season, push forward, and reignite the city’s fading love affair with the orange-and-black.

Instead, the Orioles have signed a second baseman they already have and an innings-eater (Kyle Gibson) who was so trusted by his previous employer that despite playing in October until Game 6 of the World Series, they only used him twice in the playoffs in short mopup stints. That’s not world domination; that’s pocketing a container of Tic-Tacs while the cashier at Royal Farms is busy ringing up the box of potato wedges you got at the counter. And while there’s still a lot of offseason to go, 16 of our top 20 free agents are officially off the board. Only a single pitcher projected for at least 2 WAR in our depth charts, Nathan Eovaldi, remains unsigned. The O’s could still make a trade, but a trade for anyone worth having will involve losing talent who could otherwise help the team in future years. Baltimore is more than $150 million below the first luxury tax threshold, with zero guaranteed contracts past 2023. This was the time to use cash, always the best way to acquire goods and services.

In sum, this is the right player at the right price for precisely the wrong team. To paraphrase Nietzsche, if you stare at the Pirates, the Pirates stare back at you. Someone should inform the Orioles that they are actually wild-card contenders.