{"id":8653,"date":"2022-02-22T10:31:34","date_gmt":"2022-02-22T10:31:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/?p=8653"},"modified":"2022-02-22T10:31:34","modified_gmt":"2022-02-22T10:31:34","slug":"analyst-view-escalating-russia-ukraine-crisis-ripples-through-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/?p=8653","title":{"rendered":"ANALYST VIEW Escalating Russia-Ukraine crisis ripples through markets"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p data-testid=\"paragraph-0\" class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__dark-grey___1T5z1- Text__regular___3orWU3 Text__large___1NuIuP Body__base___3K85eE Body__large_body___1_XkH1 article-body__element___vulnXJ\">LONDON, Feb 22 (Reuters) &#8211; Stock markets tumbled on Tuesday while bonds and commodities rallied after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops into the breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine. <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/stocks\/russia-facing-new-sanctions-after-putin-recognises-breakaway-regions-2022-02-22\/\" class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__dark-grey___1T5z1- Text__medium___3mY4FC Text__large___1NuIuP Link__underline_default___1RrRWa\" rel=\"noopener\"> read more <\/a><\/p>\n<p data-testid=\"paragraph-1\" class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__dark-grey___1T5z1- Text__regular___3orWU3 Text__large___1NuIuP Body__base___3K85eE Body__large_body___1_XkH1 article-body__element___vulnXJ\">Below is reaction from analysts and asset managers to the latest events:<\/p>\n<p data-testid=\"paragraph-2\" class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__dark-grey___1T5z1- Text__regular___3orWU3 Text__large___1NuIuP Body__base___3K85eE Body__large_body___1_XkH1 article-body__element___vulnXJ\">ELSA LIGNOS, GLOBAL HEAD OF FX STRATEGY, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS<\/p>\n<div class=\"registration-prompt__container___bYuCJ7 registration-prompt__inline___lE4_O9 article-body__element___vulnXJ article-body__inline-registration-prompt___OCH-j6\">\n<div class=\"registration-prompt__text-content___3mCDaQ\">\n<h5 class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__white___cSohpe Text__medium___3mY4FC Text__heading_5___Zn3DqM Heading__base___3qCIA2 Heading__heading_5___ruN8eD registration-prompt__heading___2LgQ-c\">Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com<\/h5>\n<p><button class=\"Button__button___3B9OxT Button__secondary___1qNGNf Button__round___SR4lqT TextButton__container___2ipwLP registration-prompt__button-text___eFmPbk\" type=\"button\"><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__inherit-color___1Jv4Eu Text__bold___2pIB3c Text__default___1ZhUwy TextButton__medium___1HuzMG\">Register<\/span><\/p>\n<p><\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p data-testid=\"paragraph-3\" class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__dark-grey___1T5z1- Text__regular___3orWU3 Text__large___1NuIuP Body__base___3K85eE Body__large_body___1_XkH1 article-body__element___vulnXJ\">&#8220;The short-term market reaction will depend on the extent of sanctions imposed by the West. Western leaders have two options \u2013 a &#8216;modest&#8217; approach, trying to signal de-escalation (what markets &#8216;want&#8217; to see) or a firmer approach, recognising that allowing Putin to dismantle Ukraine piece by piece will still achieve his end goal, over a longer timeframe.<\/p>\n<p data-testid=\"paragraph-4\" class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__dark-grey___1T5z1- Text__regular___3orWU3 Text__large___1NuIuP Body__base___3K85eE Body__large_body___1_XkH1 article-body__element___vulnXJ\">&#8220;EU ambassadors are meeting today to discuss their plan for sanctions&#8230;The U.S. response is probably more important. This boils down to whether this is termed &#8216;an invasion&#8217; or not. Blinken is still scheduled to meet Lavrov in Geneva on Thursday.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p data-testid=\"paragraph-5\" class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__dark-grey___1T5z1- Text__regular___3orWU3 Text__large___1NuIuP Body__base___3K85eE Body__large_body___1_XkH1 article-body__element___vulnXJ\">MARK HAEFELE, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, UBS GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT<\/p>\n<p data-testid=\"paragraph-6\" class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__dark-grey___1T5z1- Text__regular___3orWU3 Text__large___1NuIuP Body__base___3K85eE Body__large_body___1_XkH1 article-body__element___vulnXJ\">&#8220;While we believe it is too early to make a final assessment on what Monday&#8217;s events may mean for the course of events, we remain of the view that the severe risk case we described earlier &#8212; including fighting and a prolonged interruption of Russian energy exports &#8212; still represents a tail risk at this stage.<\/p>\n<p data-testid=\"paragraph-7\" class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__dark-grey___1T5z1- Text__regular___3orWU3 Text__large___1NuIuP Body__base___3K85eE Body__large_body___1_XkH1 article-body__element___vulnXJ\">&#8220;Allocations to commodities and energy stocks are an attractive option to help investors hedge portfolio risks. Energy prices would likely rise in the event of an escalation around Ukraine, as well as if cooler heads prevail amid rising demand and somewhat constrained supply.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p data-testid=\"paragraph-8\" class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__dark-grey___1T5z1- Text__regular___3orWU3 Text__large___1NuIuP Body__base___3K85eE Body__large_body___1_XkH1 article-body__element___vulnXJ\">DUBRAVKO LAKOS-BUJAS, CHIEF EQUITY MARKETS STRATEGIST, JPMORGAN<\/p>\n<p data-testid=\"paragraph-9\" class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__dark-grey___1T5z1- Text__regular___3orWU3 Text__large___1NuIuP Body__base___3K85eE Body__large_body___1_XkH1 article-body__element___vulnXJ\">&#8220;While the path of Russia-Ukraine crisis remains unclear with potentially elevated market volatility in the short-term, tightening monetary policy, in our view, still remains the key risk for equities as central banks attempt to aggressively re-anchor inflation expectations lower.<\/p>\n<p data-testid=\"paragraph-10\" class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__dark-grey___1T5z1- Text__regular___3orWU3 Text__large___1NuIuP Body__base___3K85eE Body__large_body___1_XkH1 article-body__element___vulnXJ\">&#8220;Overly restrictive monetary policy could result in an outright policy error especially if the business cycle continues to deteriorate. At the same time, the Russia\/Ukraine crisis could force a reassessment of the Fed tightening path resulting in central banks turning less hawkish, while policymakers may consider additional fiscal stimulus.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p data-testid=\"paragraph-11\" class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__dark-grey___1T5z1- Text__regular___3orWU3 Text__large___1NuIuP Body__base___3K85eE Body__large_body___1_XkH1 article-body__element___vulnXJ\">LEE HARDMANN, CURRENCY ANALUST, MUFG BANK<\/p>\n<p data-testid=\"paragraph-12\" class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__dark-grey___1T5z1- Text__regular___3orWU3 Text__large___1NuIuP Body__base___3K85eE Body__large_body___1_XkH1 article-body__element___vulnXJ\">&#8220;The developments have provided a major blow for any remaining hopes for last minute diplomatic solution to avoid conflict in the Ukraine, which will surely be even harder to avoid now after Russia chose to blatantly disregard the Minsk agreement.<\/p>\n<p data-testid=\"paragraph-13\" class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__dark-grey___1T5z1- Text__regular___3orWU3 Text__large___1NuIuP Body__base___3K85eE Body__large_body___1_XkH1 article-body__element___vulnXJ\">&#8220;There is now a significantly higher risk that tensions will continue to escalate in the region triggering a sharper sell-off for the rouble and placing more downward pressure on other European currencies, that should boost the relative appeal of the U.S. dollar.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p data-testid=\"paragraph-14\" class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__dark-grey___1T5z1- Text__regular___3orWU3 Text__large___1NuIuP Body__base___3K85eE Body__large_body___1_XkH1 article-body__element___vulnXJ\">SEAN DARBY, GLOBAL EQUITY STRATEGIST, JEFFERIES<\/p>\n<p data-testid=\"paragraph-15\" class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__dark-grey___1T5z1- Text__regular___3orWU3 Text__large___1NuIuP Body__base___3K85eE Body__large_body___1_XkH1 article-body__element___vulnXJ\">&#8220;Whilst the escalation in tensions is unwelcome, it is unlikely to alter global economic variables that much.<\/p>\n<p data-testid=\"paragraph-16\" class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__dark-grey___1T5z1- Text__regular___3orWU3 Text__large___1NuIuP Body__base___3K85eE Body__large_body___1_XkH1 article-body__element___vulnXJ\">&#8220;The initial reaction to President Putin&#8217;s declaration was an immediate risk-off with oil prices spiking. Our sense is that part of the equity move was a miscalculation over the earlier Russian troop withdrawal. Russia&#8217;s economy is itself strong with record FX reserves, signs of inflation peaking (Jan. 8.7%), its highest current account ever and debt-to-GDP ~20%.<\/p>\n<p data-testid=\"paragraph-17\" class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__dark-grey___1T5z1- Text__regular___3orWU3 Text__large___1NuIuP Body__base___3K85eE Body__large_body___1_XkH1 article-body__element___vulnXJ\">&#8220;The Ukrainian currency has been under pressure recently, while government bond yields have spiked but not to the extent seen during the annexation of Crimea.&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"registration-prompt__container___bYuCJ7 registration-prompt__inline___lE4_O9 article-body__element___vulnXJ\">\n<div class=\"registration-prompt__text-content___3mCDaQ\">\n<h5 class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__white___cSohpe Text__medium___3mY4FC Text__heading_5___Zn3DqM Heading__base___3qCIA2 Heading__heading_5___ruN8eD registration-prompt__heading___2LgQ-c\">Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com<\/h5>\n<p><button class=\"Button__button___3B9OxT Button__secondary___1qNGNf Button__round___SR4lqT TextButton__container___2ipwLP registration-prompt__button-text___eFmPbk\" type=\"button\"><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__inherit-color___1Jv4Eu Text__bold___2pIB3c Text__default___1ZhUwy TextButton__medium___1HuzMG\">Register<\/span><\/p>\n<p><\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><span class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__dark-grey___1T5z1- Text__regular___3orWU3 Text__default___1ZhUwy sign-off__text___1kMQGj\">Reporting by Reuters markets team, compiled by Karin Strohecker, editing by Sujata Rao<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__dark-grey___1T5z1- Text__regular___3orWU3 Text__large___1NuIuP Body__base___3K85eE Body__large_body___1_XkH1 article-body__element___vulnXJ\">Our Standards: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thomsonreuters.com\/en\/about-us\/trust-principles.html\" class=\"Text__text___2vZwzq Text__dark-grey___1T5z1- Text__medium___3mY4FC Text__large___1NuIuP Link__underline_default___1RrRWa\" rel=\"noopener\">The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/europe\/analyst-view-escalating-russia-ukraine-crisis-ripples-through-markets-2022-02-22\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>LONDON, Feb 22 (Reuters) &#8211; Stock markets tumbled on Tuesday while bonds and commodities rallied after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops into the breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine. read more Below is reaction from analysts and asset managers to the latest events: ELSA LIGNOS, GLOBAL HEAD OF FX STRATEGY, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS Register now [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8654,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[45],"tags":[646,3135,5443,89,57,4016,2465],"class_list":["post-8653","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ripple","tag-analyst","tag-crisis","tag-escalating","tag-markets","tag-ripples","tag-russiaukraine","tag-view"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/reuters-default.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8653","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8653"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8653\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8655,"href":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8653\/revisions\/8655"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8654"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8653"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8653"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8653"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}