Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) flipping full bull could come courtesy of the United States government, a new prediction says.<\/p>\n In an X thread<\/a> on Oct. 4, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, eyed ballooning yields as precursor to a new Bitcoin and crypto bull market.<\/p>\n U.S. treasury yields are \u201cscreaming higher,\u201d and with that, Hayes believes that a macroeconomic flashpoint is only a matter of time.<\/p>\n The reason comes in the form of a so-called \u201cbear steepener\u201d \u2014 a phenomenon that describes long-term interest rates rising more quickly than short-term ones.<\/p>\n \u201cWhy do I love these markets right now when yields are screaming higher? Bank models have no concept of a bear steepener occurring,\u201d he argued.<\/p>\n Given the current steep rise in the 2s30s curve \u2014 the difference between the 30-year and 2-year yields \u2014 combined with rising long and short-term interest rates, the pressure across the economy is rising.<\/p>\n \u201cDue to the leverage and non-linear risks embedded in banks’ portfolios, they will be selling bonds or paying fixed on IRS as rates rise. More selling, begets more selling, which is no bueno for bond prices,\u201d Hayes continued.<\/p>\n The result should be clear \u2014 a return to mass liquidity injections, counteracting the quantitative tightening<\/a> seen since late 2021 which has pressured crypto markets.<\/p>\n For Hayes, this cannot come without major casualties along the way. He concluded:<\/p>\n \u201cThe faster this bear steepener rises, the faster someone goes belly up, the faster everyone recognises there is no way out other than money printing to save govt bond markets, the faster we get back to the crypto bull market :). The Lord is my Shepherd, I shall not want.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Separate data from TradingView<\/a> shows the 30-year U.S. government bonds yield hitting 5% this week \u2014 a first since August 2007, before the Global Financial Crisis.<\/p>\n Continuing the discussion, Philip Swift, creator of statistics resource LookIntoBitcoin and co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, voiced his support for Hayes\u2019 prognosis.<\/p>\n An accompanying chart showed Bitcoin\u2019s relationship with treasury yields.<\/p>\n \u201cThat would be THE major catalyst for the Bitcoin bull market,\u201d he commented<\/a> about a theoretical return to money supply expansion. <\/p>\n Alongside, the U.S. continues to add to its record-high national debt at an astonishing pace.<\/p>\n Related:\u00a0Bitcoin analysts still predict a BTC price crash to $20K<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n Two weeks after the debt tally passed $33 trillion<\/a> for the first time, the government increased its total by $275 billion in just one day.<\/p>\n This did not go unnoticed among financial commentators.<\/p>\n Total US debt just rose $275 billion in one day\u2014the same amount as last month’s total borrowing.<\/p>\n Yet \u2014 The US doesn’t work for you. pic.twitter.com\/03YUxyiQtB<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Joe Consorti ⚡ (@JoeConsorti) October 3, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n \u201cIn a single day, the US added more than half of Bitcoin\u2019s entire market cap in debt,\u201d Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin adoption firm Jan3, responded<\/a>. <\/p>\n \u201cThat\u2019s something like 10 million BTC . And yet there are still people that are unsure if $27k is a good price to buy.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n BTC\/USD traded at around $27,500 at the time of writing.<\/p>\n This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\nHayes: Bitcoin bulls should eye U.S. “no way out” moment<\/h2>\n
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U.S. debt sees its own “Uptober”<\/h2>\n
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\u2022 Unskilled military-aged foreign men are invading
\u2022 Violent criminals caught & released
\u2022 Open-air drug use
\u2022 American culture in shambles<\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-10\/063fafec-8e30-4d71-ab08-b9dfd7cc2c64.png\")