Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) starts a new week, a new month and a new quarter with a firm bullish move past $28,000.<\/p>\n The largest cryptocurrency greets \u201cUptober\u201d in style with its best weekly close since mid-August \u2014 what lies in store next?<\/p>\n After mixed BTC price action in September, market participants were prepared for a potentially volatile monthly close, but in the end, this ended up in bulls\u2019 favor.<\/p>\n With October frequently the sight of tangible BTC price gains, excitement is thus brewing over what might happen in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n Macro triggers may not hold the answer immediately, as October begins with a quiet phase for United States macro data, with the government averting a shutdown at the last minute.<\/p>\n Bitcoin fundamentals are not yet echoing the spike in spot price, meanwhile, with mining difficulty due to in fact decrease at its next automated readjustment on Oct. 2.<\/p>\n Cointelegraph takes a look at these topics and more in the weekly digest of BTC price catalysts lying in wait.<\/p>\n In the run-up to the Oct. 1 weekly close, Bitcoin had already cleared the end of the September monthly candle \u2014 with little by way of overall volatility<\/a>.<\/p>\n That all changed as the week ended, with a sudden growth spurt taking BTC price action to just shy of $28,000. In the hours that followed, new local highs of $28,451 appeared on Bitstamp.<\/p>\n Since the start of Oct. 1, the largest cryptocurrency is up over 5%, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro<\/a> and TradingView<\/a> confirms.<\/p>\n The move provided Bitcoin\u2019s highest weekly close since mid-August, canceling out the weaker performance seen since.<\/p>\n \u201cBitcoin back up to $28,000,\u201d Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe, CEO and founder at MNTrading, told<\/a> X subscribers on the day. <\/p>\n \u201cMight fully retrace, but the trend is clearly upwards. Every consolidation of Bitcoin will be a period where altcoins are starting to follow the path of Bitcoin. This quarter will be fun!\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Popular trader Skew likewise flagged the potential for a comedown, using exchange order book trends as proof.<\/p>\n \u201cPretty wide orderbook here in terms of available \/ resting liquidity,\u201d he explained<\/a> on the day.<\/p>\n \u201cBigger price reaction comes out of this imo Increasing ask liquidity on spot orderbooks; implies greater volume needed by spot takers to clear $28K – $29K (Market structure shift).\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n He added that the impetus to decide where the market headed now lay with spot traders.<\/p>\n $BTC<\/a> Aggregate CVDs & Delta Price decline with Perp CVD decline & Perp sell delta picking up<\/p>\n Next move that decides fate of this entire move is spot pic.twitter.com\/7mAB2XMvUh<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Skew \u0394 (@52kskew) October 2, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n Keith Alan, co-founder of monitoring resource Material Indicators, posted<\/a> a snapshot of the Binance order book, showing $28,000 as the main hurdle to overcome just after the move.<\/p>\n Bitcoin, he added<\/a>, was now contending with resistance in the form of the 200-week moving average, at the time of writing around $27,970.<\/p>\n \u201cExpecting another run at resistance this month, but since I’m still in \u2018Buy the Dip, Sell the Rip Mode\u2019 I’m going to stick to those rules, take the quick money and look for the next setup,\u201d part of accompanying commentary read. <\/p>\n \u201cExpecting volatility to continue over the next 24 hours.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Bitcoin beginning October on a strong note puts it at odds with the scenes from last year. <\/p>\n As Cointelegraph reported<\/a>, a 0.7% dip heralded the start of what is statistically the strongest month for BTC price gains.<\/p>\n A surprisingly sideways month<\/a> followed, this culminating in the FTX meltdown which sent crypto markets tumbling to two-year lows later in Q4.<\/p>\n This time \u2014 so far \u2014 thus feels different, and more like the classic \u201cUptober\u201d in years gone by. According to data from monitoring resource CoinGlass<\/a>, BTC\/USD has not finished October lower than it started since 2018.<\/p>\n Debating the topic, popular market commentators were happy to channel the spirit of 2021 \u2014 the year in which Q4 saw not a multi-year low, but a new all-time high for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n Happy Uptober to those who celebrate. <\/p>\n Remember 2021? pic.twitter.com\/qgHy1ThGOf<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) October 2, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n Popular trader Jelle went further, suggesting that Bitcoin was in the midst of a more significant trend change.<\/p>\n \u201cBitcoin broke its mid-term downtrend, retested it, and is now starting the next leg higher,\u201d he proclaimed<\/a> alongside an explanatory chart. <\/p>\n \u201cStrong weekly close behind us, most charts look like we’ll push even higher this week. Welcome to Uptober.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Previously, Jelle, like Van de Poppe<\/a>, had argued that this month could see BTC\/USD head beyond $30,000<\/a> for the first time since June.<\/p>\n \u201c8 out the previous 10 Octobers were positive for Bitcoin,\u201d popular analytics account Stack Hodler wrote<\/a> in part of his own analysis on Oct. 1, noting that on average, returns during that time had averaged 22%.<\/p>\n In a turnaround from what has become the norm in recent months, Bitcoin network fundamentals are not mimicking the bullish mood on spot markets.<\/p>\n The latest estimates from data resource BTC.com<\/a> show that conversely, difficulty is due to drop 0.7% at its next automated readjustment on Oct. 2.<\/p>\n Currently at all-time highs, difficulty last gained almost 6% at a time when BTC price performance was decidedly uncertain.<\/p>\n Miner competition remains fierce, as Cointelegraph reported<\/a> in September, and spikes in hash rate underscore the ever-changing environment as miners make long-term commitments to the network in the name of profitability.<\/p>\n With hash rate \u2014 the estimated processing power deployed to the network \u2014 also higher than ever, the classic mantra<\/a> \u201cprice follows hash rate\u201d has come back to the fore.<\/p>\n Not everyone adheres to the saying, with some of Bitcoin\u2019s most revered names arguing that the opposite is true \u2014 that hash rate in fact follows price.<\/p>\n Among them is Jameson Lopp, co-founder and chief technology officer at Bitcoin storage firm Casa.<\/p>\n Hashrate follows price. Some folks believe price follows hashrate, possibly because hashrate doesn’t simply track ~spot~ price, but rather tracks some ~speculative~ future price. Miners are speculators too!<\/p>\n \u2014 Jameson Lopp (@lopp) June 23, 2018<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n In a blog post<\/a> released at the weekend, Lopp unveiled the results of his efforts to predict hash rate more accurately.<\/p>\n \u201cBy blending together many hashrate estimates and weighting them based upon recent estimates with a variety of trailing data time frames we were fairly easily able to improve upon the 1100 block estimate and decrease the average error rate by 13% and lower the standard deviation by 14%,\u201d he summarized.<\/p>\n Depending on the resource used<\/a>, hash rate values can differ considerably, with only the broad trend clearly visible to observers.<\/p>\n While Bitcoin gets excited into the first week of October, the same cannot be said for U.S. macro data, which is due a calmer start to the month.<\/p>\n The main would-be event of the week has arguably already occurred, as lawmakers avert a government shutdown<\/a> at the last minute.<\/p>\n Ukraine aid formed the sticking point, with this being removed in order to strike a deal cross-house.<\/p>\n US Congress just passed a plan to avert US gov shut down. <\/p>\n This will likely calm the stock market and give us some green candles next week! Its a short term 45 days emergency extension.<\/p>\n No Gov Shut Down for now = Calm and Green week for #SP500<\/a> and #Bitcoin<\/a> #Crypto<\/a>\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/DY6PhJPJqn<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Seth (@seth_fin) October 1, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n Turning to the month\u2019s outlook, financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter focused on forthcoming commentary from officials at the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n Ahead of the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to decide interest rate policy on Nov. 1, markets will continue to eye official language for clues.<\/p>\n \u201cThe next Fed meeting is in exactly one month. With 13 Fed speakers this week, we expect even more volatility,\u201d Kobeissi summarized on X.<\/p>\n The next Fed meeting is in exactly one month.<\/p>\n With 13 Fed speakers this week, we expect even more volatility.<\/p>\n We’re publishing our trades for the week shortly.<\/p>\n In 2022, our calls made 86%.<\/p>\n Subscribe to access our analysis and see what we’re trading:https:\/\/t.co\/SJRZ4FrfLE<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 1, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n The latest data from CME Group\u2019s FedWatch Tool<\/a> shows mixed feelings over what the FOMC will decide. The market currently puts the odds of rates remaining at their present levels at 62%.<\/p>\n Eyeing an associated macro phenomenon, meanwhile, financial commentator Tedtalksmacro pointed to U.S. liquidity trends and their impact on BTC price action going forward.<\/p>\n Related:\u00a0Will Bitcoin \u2018Uptober\u2019 bring gains for MKR, AAVE, RUNE and INJ?<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n The relationship between global liquidity and risk asset performance is well documented<\/a> \u2014 especially given the fluctuations occurring since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n Late last week, Tedtalksmacro showed a divergence between net U.S. dollar liquidity and BTC\/USD.<\/p>\n Yes pic.twitter.com\/cgzD5OoeKa<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 tedtalksmacro (@tedtalksmacro) September 29, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n In accompanying analysis, he argued that measuring delta over \u201coutright liquidity\u201d gave better insight. Regarding the outlook for Bitcoin, he was complimentary.<\/p>\n \u201cMost importantly, the path of least resistance is now sideways \/ higher from here in the years to come… but substantial risk remains ( for at least a few quarters ), that you get chopped up before things rip quickly higher,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n Measuring liquidity outright is not so useful for informing investment decisions and tends to lag, however, measuring the delta or change week-on-week, month-on-month is much more powerful.<\/p>\n As there is often a lead on the liquidity side, at least when comparing with BTC price\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/1DvE7xInxC<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 tedtalksmacro (@tedtalksmacro) September 29, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\nBitcoin bulls acknowledge BTC price reversal risk<\/h2>\n
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Mostly seeing sell pressure just in perps for now <\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-10\/e6628feb-18cf-4e23-b885-9c90c522199a.png\")
A classic “Uptober?”<\/h2>\n
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Difficulty due to come off record high<\/h2>\n
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Fed speakers headline macro diary<\/h2>\n
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Analysis turns positive on dollar liquidity<\/h2>\n
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