Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) emerges from a hectic macro week to circle some classic trend lines near $26,000 \u2014 what could happen next?<\/p>\n After some brutal tests of traders\u2019 resolve over the past seven days, the BTC price is still determined to hold familiar ground.<\/p>\n Market participants are in \u201cwait and see\u201d mode as a lack of clear direction characterizes the largest cryptocurrency at the start of a new week\u2019s trading.<\/p>\n United States holidays mean traditional markets will only open on June 20, giving at least one day\u2019s grace before any surprises hit.<\/p>\n There is still plenty left to deal with from last week, however, including BlackRock filing for a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF). Rumors are now that Fidelity Investments might follow.<\/p>\n What will it take to inspire BTC price to adopt a trend? Cointelegraph looks at some of the major topics now under discussion among traders and analysts.<\/p>\n The latest weekly close for BTC\/USD yielded little change over the past seven days.<\/p>\n At just above $26,000, \u201csideways\u201d is the name of the game for the pair, which weathered a slew of potential volatility triggers over the week.<\/p>\n A trip to new three-month lows was short-lived, however, and traders are now cautiously waiting for new cues on the direction while not yet defaulting to a bearish view.<\/p>\n \u201cI remain long while we show no signs of a reversal,\u201d Crypto Tony said<\/a> in a summary of his position on the day. <\/p>\n \u201cLooking for that trend line test at $26,900, and following a flip of that we then have $27,300 to note then up and away. Step by step we move.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Fellow trader Koala argued that upside and downside extremes centered on a $4,000-wide corridor, with lows likely to get swept before a return to $27,000.<\/p>\n \u201cA set of equal highs and equal lows. I think we run the equal lows before the equal highs,\u201d he argued<\/a>. <\/p>\n \u201cThe demand area is where I\u2019m interested in bidding for a run higher (invalidation is quite obvious) If demand holds, then 27k+. Otherwise, 23kish.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n For Credible Crypto, the potential range was narrower, with $25,500 the lower boundary.<\/p>\n \u201cIt would not surprise me to see us chop around between the RED and GREEN regions below for another few weeks. Any move above 28.5k and we will have broken a key market structure level that would imply that our corrective structure has completed and we may have begun a new impulsive move,\u201d he wrote<\/a> in part of a recent analysis alongside an explanatory chart. <\/p>\n \u201cA low timeframe move below GREEN is OK, because (as per previous posts), my HTF bias is bullish above 20k. That being said, I would only expect us to dip below GREEN due to some short term, fundamental\/event driven volatility. Let’s see what the next few weeks bring.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Trader Pierre flagged two trend lines in the form of the four-hour and one-day as support and resistance levels, respectively.<\/p>\n Very elaborate analysis shared yesterday: \u2014 Pierre – I will never DM you first (@pierre_crypt0) June 19, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n BTC price additionally circled the classic 200-week moving average (MA) at $26,600 to start the week, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro<\/a> and TradingView<\/a>. <\/p>\n In terms of where BTC price might fall should downside momentum return, on-chain analysis offers a clearer vision of support.<\/p>\n For analytics firm Glassnode, recent price action has centered on a key breakeven point for Bitcoin\u2019s more speculative investor cohort.<\/p>\n Dubbed short-term holders (STHs), these correspond to wallet entities that have hodled coins for 155 days or less.<\/p>\n The aggregate cost basis (CB) for these entities \u2014 the price at which they purchased coins within that 155-day window \u2014 currently sits at $26,400, roughly matching the 200-week MA.<\/p>\n \u201cThe recent volatility in Bitcoin price action has been anchored around the Short-Term Holder Cost-Basis of $26.4K,\u201d Glassnode argued<\/a> in a tweet at the weekend.<\/p>\n \u201cThis suggests the STH-CB remains a pivotal level in determining both the direction and momentum of the local trend.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Below $26,400, then, STHs begin to encounter unrealized losses on their investment, as shown by an accompanying chart.<\/p>\n Glassnode has previously flagged the significance<\/a> of the STH cost basis, along with the equivalent for 155-day+ investors, known as long-term holders (LTHs), becoming a source of interest in particular after that November 2022 meltdown of the FTX exchange.<\/p>\n With U.S. markets closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on June 19, macro catalysts for crypto markets wait until later in the week.<\/p>\n While not as numerous or significant<\/a> as the previous week\u2019s set, these still have the potential to spark some surprise volatility.<\/p>\n The Federal Reserve is among them, with Chair Jerome Powell due to testify before Congress over two days from June 21.<\/p>\n After the Fed\u2019s recent decision to pause interest rate hikes but leave the door open to resume them later, markets will be keenly analyzing Powell\u2019s language for hints about what might come next.<\/p>\n To cap off the week, June 22 will see the release of Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index (PMI) data.<\/p>\n Among market participants, meanwhile, the focus is equally on Bitcoin\u2019s correlation to traditional risk assets as it is on how macro triggers impact them.<\/p>\n \u201cNot only has $BTC lost the positive correlation w\/SPX and NDX, but we\u2019ve also lost the inverse corr w\/DXY,\u201d trader Josh Olszewicz noted<\/a> last week, referencing Bitcoin\u2019s interaction with the S&P 500, Nasdaq and U.S. Dollar Index, respectively.<\/p>\n Credible Crypto suggested that the recent disparity between BTC and SPX performance \u2014 sideways versus what various source have called a \u201cbull market rally\u201d \u2014 may yet resolve in bulls\u2019 favor.<\/p>\n Been seeing quite a few comments lately on the “weakness” of $BTC<\/a> vs trad markets $SPX<\/a> and how this is bad for crypto.<\/p>\n Don’t mistake consolidation for weakness.<\/p>\n Like a student who gets a good nights sleep before a major exam- the more we rest before the big day the better we\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/FoCrvOskD1<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 CrediBULL Crypto (@CredibleCrypto) June 18, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n Cointelegraph has often reported on the ups and downs of Bitcoin\u2019s macro correlations in recent years. A notable theme post-2020 has been a strength during periods of Fed liquidity injections<\/a> and vice versa.<\/p>\n Bitcoin itself may be offering little inspiration, but one of its biggest investment vehicles is experiencing a resurgence in its own right.<\/p>\n The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has begun a fresh attempt at narrowing its heavy discount versus the BTC spot price.<\/p>\n GBTC has traded at this discount \u2014 which is, in fact, a negative premium \u2014 since Bitcoin\u2019s all-time highs in 2021. Since then, it has reached -50%.<\/p>\n Last week\u2019s announcement of a Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) filing by BlackRock appeared to induce a change of mood, and as of June 17, the premium had decreased<\/a> to -36.6%.<\/p>\n As Cointelegraph reported, the changes came despite arguments over the true status of BlackRock\u2019s offering<\/a>, with some claiming that it would not be a spot ETF, which remain banned in the United States.<\/p>\n That aside, GBTC\u2019s recent performance remains impressive \u2014 36.6% is within striking distance of new 2023 highs for the premium.<\/p>\n Buyers have also been making themselves known, leaving major client ARK Invest to react. ARK currently owns<\/a> more than 5.3 million GBTC shares.<\/p>\n This week, meanwhile, fresh speculation of an ETF offering focuses on asset manager Fidelity Investments, with details still forthcoming.<\/p>\n \u201cI was long GBTC before this but this makes me more confident that it was the correct move,\u201d investor Mike Alfred reacted<\/a>.<\/p>\n Crypto market sentiment got spooked last week thanks to the combined ramifications of U.S. legal action against exchanges and macroeconomic policy changes.<\/p>\n Related:\u00a0Bitcoin bulls look to re-establish control \u2014 Will BNB, LTC, OKB and QNT follow?<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n A look at the Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows<\/a> how recent events have left their mark, with June 15 seeing the lowest score since mid-March.<\/p>\n While this suggests a more \u201cfearful\u201d environment than at any time since then, Fear & Greed nonetheless remains surprisingly stable. Those lows came in at 41\/100 \u2014 barely \u201cfearful\u201d at all and subsequently returning to the stable \u201cneutral\u201d range.<\/p>\n As of June 19, the Index measures 47\/100.<\/p>\n Continuing, research firm Santiment also cited the BlackRock ETF story as potential fuel for markets \u2014 specifically because some reactions were hostile.<\/p>\n For Santiment, \u201cthe more negativity surrounding this story, the stronger likelihood of a continued rise\u201d in crypto markets, it explained<\/a> last week.<\/p>\nNo relief for nervous Bitcoin traders<\/h2>\n
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– Must hold = H4 trend
– Must break = D1 downtrend (same since +29.0k)
– Chopfest in between https:\/\/t.co\/pIAFeLgFQ2<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/h9lhnjKImH<\/a><\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-06\/5629f0d2-dee2-48e3-b6fd-12a82b083dea.png\")
Speculators in the spotlight<\/h2>\n
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Macro cools after intense week<\/h2>\n
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GBTC gets a BlackRock boost<\/h2>\n
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Market optimism sees repeated tests\u00a0<\/h2>\n
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