Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) is entering a new \u201cspeculation cycle\u201d typical of a bull run, new analysis says.<\/p>\n In a tweet<\/a> on May 16, Philip Swift, creator of data resource LookIntoBitcoin and co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, revealed history repeating itself according to the RHODL Ratio<\/a> metric.<\/p>\n RHODL Ratio is a method of tracking BTC price behavior based on the realized price of the supply \u2014 the price at which coins last moved.<\/p>\n Created by Swift in 2020, it compares the relative ages of coins that moved one week ago to those which moved one to two years ago.<\/p>\n This ratio gives an insight into the relative activity of short-term (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs) and, by extension, the extent to which speculation is present on the market.<\/p>\n Currently, RHODL is bouncing higher, having hit its green accumulation zone at the end of 2022.<\/p>\n At the time, Swift told Cointelegraph<\/a>\u00a0that Bitcoin was \u201cat the point of maximum opportunity\u201d \u2014 something which has since proven true, with BTC\/USD gaining 70% in Q1 2023.<\/p>\n Prior to that, its descent toward that point had coincided with Bitcoin\u2019s own retreat<\/a>\u00a0to macro lows.<\/p>\n Now, with speculative activity seemingly increasing, he believes that a new bull cycle is already underway.<\/p>\n \u201cWhen I created the bitcoin RHODL Ratio indicator in 2020, one thing that struck me was how it showed a new bull run forming…when the ratio value of younger coins began to increase. Which is where we are right now,\u201d he commented. <\/p>\n \u201cDon\u2019t panic about small price pullbacks. Zoom out.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Swift is not alone in his conviction. Responding, Checkmate, lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode, called<\/a> RHODL Ratio \u201cone of the greatest onchain finds.\u201d<\/p>\n An accompanying chart, meanwhile, added that the 2021 bull market, despite delivering a blow-off top for BTC\/USD, did not see a copycat move for RHODL. The last time the metric hit its red \u201chigh speculation\u201d zone was at Bitcoin\u2019s prior all-time high in late 2017.<\/p>\n Continuing, Swift argued that on short timeframes, market participants remain risk-off on crypto markets.<\/p>\n Related:\u00a0Watch these BTC price levels as Bitcoin threatens to lose $27K support<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n The conclusion followed a scan of funding rates on exchanges, with a slew of \u201cbearish\u201d ratings for Bitcoin generated by DecenTrader<\/a>. These concerned open interest and long\/short ratio in addition to funding rates themselves.<\/p>\n \u201cMarket is still fearful\/depressed\/uninterested\u2026\u201d he summarized<\/a> on the day.<\/p>\n Earlier this month, Swift gave Cointelegraph an updated forecast<\/a> on what might happen to Bitcoin in the final year before its next block subsidy halving. Among other eventualities, a return to $20,000 is not out of the question.<\/p>\nRHODL Ratiocreator on BTC price: \u201cZoom out\u201d<\/h2>\n
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Fear, depression and lack of interest<\/h2>\n
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