Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) bulls laid most of their options at $24,500 and higher for the March 3 options expiry, and given the recent bullishness seen from BTC, who can blame them? On Feb. 21, Bitcoin\u2019s price briefly traded above $25,200, reflecting an 18% gain in eight days. Unfortunately, regulatory pressure on the crypto sector increased, and despite no effective measures being announced, investors are still wary and reactive to remarks from policymakers.<\/p>\n For instance, on Feb. 23, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler claimed that \u201ceverything other than Bitcoin\u201d falls under the agency’s jurisdiction<\/a>. Gensler noted that most crypto projects \u201care securities because there\u2019s a group in the middle and the public is anticipating profits based on that group.\u201d<\/p>\n March 1 comments from two U.S. Federal Reserve officials reiterated<\/a> the necessity for even more aggressive interest rate increases to curb inflation. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari\u2019s and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic\u2019s comments also decreased investors\u2019 expectations of a monetary policy reversal happening in 2023.<\/p>\n The stricter stance from the macroeconomic and crypto regulatory environment caused investors to rethink their exposure to cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, Bitcoin\u2019s price decline practically extinguished bulls\u2019 expectation for a $24,500 or higher options expiry on March 3, so their bets are unlikely to pay off as the deadline approaches.<\/p>\n The open interest for the March 3 options expiry is $710 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bulls became overconfident after Bitcoin traded above $25,000 on Feb. 21.<\/p>\n The 1.12 call-to-put ratio reflects the imbalance between the $400 million call (buy) open interest and the $310 million put (sell) options. However, the expected outcome is likely much lower regarding active open interest.<\/p>\n For example, if Bitcoin\u2019s price remains near $23,600 at 8:00 am UTC on March 3, only $50 million worth of these call (buy) options will be available. This difference happens because the right to buy Bitcoin at $24,000 or $25,000 is useless if BTC trades below that level on expiry.<\/p>\n Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on March 3 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:<\/p>\n This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.<\/p>\n For example, a trader could have sold a call option, effectively gaining negative exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price, but unfortunately, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect.<\/p>\n Related:<\/em><\/strong> <\/strong>Bitcoin’s least volatile month ever? BTC price ends February up 0.03%<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n Bitcoin bulls must push the price above $24,000 on March 3 to secure a potential $110 million profit. However, data from an announcement from the Mortgage Bankers Association on March 1 might turn the tide favorably for BTC. The weekly volume of mortgage applications declined<\/a> by 44% versus the same period in 2022, hitting the lowest level in 28 years.<\/p>\n Considering the negative pressure from regulators and investors\u2019 eying the next Fed decision on March 22, bears have good odds of pressuring BTC below $23,000 and profiting by $85 million in the March 3 weekly options expiry. Still, there\u2019s hope for Bitcoin bulls depending on how traditional markets react to the bearish mortgage applications data.<\/p>\n This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.\n<\/p>\n The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors\u2019 alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\nBulls were \u201crug pulled\u201d by negative regulatory remarks<\/h2>\n
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Bears have set their trap below $23,000<\/h2>\n
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Could weak U.S. mortgage applications could benefit BTC bulls? <\/h2>\n