{"id":42244,"date":"2023-01-24T22:13:40","date_gmt":"2023-01-24T22:13:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/?p=42244"},"modified":"2023-01-24T22:13:40","modified_gmt":"2023-01-24T22:13:40","slug":"ethereum-futures-and-options-data-reflect-investors-growing-confidence-in-eth-price","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/?p=42244","title":{"rendered":"Ethereum futures and options data reflect investors\u2019 growing confidence in ETH price"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-v-5a4050f8=\"\">\n<p>The price of Ether (<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/ethereum-price\" rel=\"noopener\">ETH<\/a>) rallied 16% between Jan. 14 and Jan. 21, peaking at $1,680 before facing a 5.4% rejection. Curiously, the same resistance level resulted in a substantial correction in late August 2022 and again in early November 2022.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-01\/3467d31f-17c9-4fc9-b8e8-75c3c89ce2fd.png\" \/><figcaption style=\"text-align: center\"><em>Ether\/USD price index, 2-day. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>From one side, traders are relieved that Ether is trading up 35.5% year-to-date, but the repeated corrections that follow retests of the $1,680 resistance may have weakened investors&#8217; sentiment.<\/p>\n<p>Negative newsflow might have limited Ether investors&#8217; appetite after troubled cryptocurrency company Digital Currency Group (DCG) <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/genesis-creditors-file-securities-lawsuit-against-barry-silbert-and-dcg\" data-amp=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph-com.cdn.ampproject.org\/c\/s\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/genesis-creditors-file-securities-lawsuit-against-barry-silbert-and-dcg\/amp\" rel=\"noopener\">faced more legal issues<\/a> this week. On Jan. 23, a group of Genesis Capital creditors filed a lawsuit alleging violations of federal securities laws. In addition, the plaintiffs allege the lending firm made false and misleading statements through a scheme to defraud potential and existing digital asset lenders.<\/p>\n<p>Another new concerns for Ether holders came on Jan. 22 after, a &#8220;temperature check&#8221; proposal to deploy the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/uniswap-holders-ditch-ethereum-for-bnb-pos-chain-to-deploy-v3-protocol\" data-amp=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph-com.cdn.ampproject.org\/c\/s\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/uniswap-holders-ditch-ethereum-for-bnb-pos-chain-to-deploy-v3-protocol\/amp\" rel=\"noopener\">Uniswap v3 protocol to BNB Chain<\/a> received overwhelming support from the Uniswap community. 80% of Uniswap&#8217;s UNI governance token holders have voted to deploy the additional version of the decentralized exchange protocol.<\/p>\n<p>On the bright side, Ethereum developers have created a testing environment for the upcoming Shanghai network upgrade. According to Ethereum developer Marius Van Der Wijden, the testnet appears to have been created to <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/ethereum-devs-create-shadow-fork-to-test-conditions-for-ether-withdrawals\" data-amp=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph-com.cdn.ampproject.org\/c\/s\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/ethereum-devs-create-shadow-fork-to-test-conditions-for-ether-withdrawals\/amp\" rel=\"noopener\">evaluate staking withdrawals<\/a>, which are currently disabled on the mainnet. Over 14.5 million ETH (worth $23 billion) has been deposited into the Ethereum staking contract, and harsh criticism followed the multiple delays in enabling withdrawals.<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s look at <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/trading-for-beginners\/crypto-derivatives\" data-amp=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph-com.cdn.ampproject.org\/c\/s\/cointelegraph.com\/trading-for-beginners\/crypto-derivatives\/amp\" rel=\"noopener\">Ether derivatives<\/a> data to understand if the $1,680 price rejection has impacted crypto investors&#8217; sentiment.<\/p>\n<h2>ETH futures finally enter the neutral area<\/h2>\n<p>Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. Meanwhile, professional traders prefer these instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates in a <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/trading-bitcoin-vs-btc-futures-which-is-best-for-you\" data-amp=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph-com.cdn.ampproject.org\/c\/s\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/trading-bitcoin-vs-btc-futures-which-is-best-for-you\/amp\" rel=\"noopener\">perpetual futures contract<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The three-month futures annualized premium should trade between 4% to 8% in healthy markets to cover costs and associated risks. When the futures trade at a discount versus regular spot markets, it shows a lack of confidence from leverage buyers and this is a bearish indicator.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-01\/fcb83f3e-e99f-4a56-b2f6-b857023f4620.png\" \/><figcaption style=\"text-align: center\"><em>Ether 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The above chart shows that derivatives traders are no longer bearish because the Ether futures premium reached the 4% threshold for neutral markets. So, bulls can celebrate that the indicator shifted to a modest premium, but that does not mean traders expect the immediate result of positive price action.<\/p>\n<p>For this reason, traders should analyze <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/how-to-trade-bitcoin-using-leverage-and-not-worry-about-liquidation\" data-amp=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph-com.cdn.ampproject.org\/c\/s\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/how-to-trade-bitcoin-using-leverage-and-not-worry-about-liquidation\/amp\" rel=\"noopener\">Ether&#8217;s options markets<\/a> to understand how whales and market makers are pricing the odds of future price movements.<\/p>\n<h2>Options traders are comfortable with downside risk<\/h2>\n<p>The 25% delta skew is a telling sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.<\/p>\n<p>In bear markets, options investors give higher odds for a price dump, causing the skew indicator to rise above 10%. On the other hand, bullish markets tend to drive the skew indicator below -10%, meaning the bearish put options are discounted.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-01\/a4e3b99c-2a5b-4669-8424-518769c708a3.png\" \/><figcaption style=\"text-align: center\"><em>Ether 60-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong><em>Related:\u00a0<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/why-is-crypto-pumping-watch-the-market-report-live\" data-amp=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph-com.cdn.ampproject.org\/c\/s\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/why-is-crypto-pumping-watch-the-market-report-live\/amp\" rel=\"noopener\">Why is crypto pumping? Watch The Market Report live<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The delta skew has stabilized near 0% in the past week, signaling that Ether options traders are presenting a neutral sentiment. That is a stark contrast from the end of 2022 when the 25% skew index hovered near 18% \u2014 indicating a lack of comfort in taking downside risks.<\/p>\n<p>Ultimately, both options and futures markets point to pro traders moving out of the neutral-to-bearish sentiment to a neutral positioning, meaning there is no discomfort after the rejection at $1,680 and subsequent correction.<\/p>\n<p>Consequently, the odds favor Ether bulls because the negative newsflow could not prevent the 35.5% year-to-date gains and the demand for shorts using futures contracts remains thin.<\/p>\n<p class=\"post-content__disclaimer\">The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors\u2019 alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"post-content__disclaimer\">This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/ethereum-futures-and-options-data-reflect-investors-growing-confidence-in-eth-price\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The price of Ether (ETH) rallied 16% between Jan. 14 and Jan. 21, peaking at $1,680 before facing a 5.4% rejection. Curiously, the same resistance level resulted in a substantial correction in late August 2022 and again in early November 2022.\u00a0 Ether\/USD price index, 2-day. Source: TradingView From one side, traders are relieved that Ether [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":42245,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[41],"tags":[9867,21,181,158,2646,275,102,179,195,5953],"class_list":["post-42244","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ethereum","tag-confidence","tag-data","tag-eth","tag-ethereum","tag-futures","tag-growing","tag-investors","tag-options","tag-price","tag-reflect"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/7977a51c-531b-43d2-a384-555819c44931.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42244","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=42244"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42244\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":42246,"href":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42244\/revisions\/42246"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/42245"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=42244"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=42244"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/egrowonline.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=42244"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}