Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) only needs one more key on-chain signal for a classic bull market to begin, analyst David Puell says.\u00a0<\/p>\n In a tweet<\/a> on Dec. 17, the Puell Multiple creator argued that the stage is almost set for the end of the BTC price bear market.<\/p>\n Despite many calling for new BTC\/USD lows of $12,000 or less<\/a> this cycle, not everyone is wholly bearish on the outlook for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n For Puell, two essential on-chain phenomena necessary for BTC price recovery are already in evidence.<\/p>\n Long-term holders (LTHs) are resisting the urge to sell despite Bitcoin being down over 70% from its last all-time high. <\/p>\n At the same time, short-term \u201cspeculators\u201d are feeling acute pain from recent price action. As Cointelegraph reported<\/a>, these \u201ctourists\u201d are likely already mostly gone from the market.<\/p>\n All that is missing, Puell believes, is a rise in network activity from all participants.<\/p>\n \u201cOn-chain, three factors are needed for a bull: 1. Holding behavior from long-term investors. 2. Painful losses from short-term speculators. 3. Network activity across the board,\u201d he summarized.<\/p>\n \u201cPersonally seeing 1 and 2. 3 is still underwhelming.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n He added that \u201cfavorable\u201d macro conditions would aid the turnaround, as well as crypto becoming more resilient to \u201ccontagion\u201d in the form of \u201cexogenous and endogenous \u2018swans.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n BTC\/USD traded at around $16,700 at the time of writing, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro<\/a> and TradingView<\/a> showed.<\/p>\n That perspective chimes with others calling for calm over current BTC price performance.<\/p>\n Related:\u00a0Bitcoin targets $16.7K amid fear BNB may ‘drag whole crypto market down’<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n Among them is popular analytics account Dilution-proof, which on the day drew attention to BTC\/USD simply copying previous bear market behavior.<\/p>\n Evidence came in the form of Bitcoin\u2019s MVRV-z score \u2014 an expression of market cap to realized cap in standard deviations. Dilution-proof initially called the metric “Market-Value-to-Realized-Value Temperature (MVRVT).”\u00a0<\/p>\n Currently, accompanying charts showed, signs point to a classic bear market bottom formation, Dilution-proof stating<\/a> that Bitcoin \u201cis just doing what it does at this post-halving date literally every cycle.\u201d<\/p>\nPuell: Bitcoin network activity “underwhelming”<\/h2>\n
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A Bitcoin halving cycle like any other?<\/h2>\n
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