While Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) investors may not consider the United States midterm elections a significant event, an eerie fractal from 2018 may provide a clue to what could happen before the year ends.<\/p>\n Comparing Bitcoin\u2019s price actions prior to the midterm elections of 2018<\/a> with those of 2022 shows a strikingly similar bear market trend. <\/p>\n For instance, BTC price trended lower in 2018 while holding a horizontal level near $6,000 as support, only to break below it after the midterm elections.<\/p>\n In 2022, the cryptocurrency has halfway mirrored this trend. Its price now awaits a close below the current horizontal support level of around $19,000. With the midterm elections scheduled for Nov. 8, the said breakdown scenario could occur sooner or later, as illustrated below.<\/p>\n Independent market analyst Aditya Siddhartha Roy thinks Bitcoin\u2019s price will fall into the $12,000-$14,000 range if a similar breakdown occurs. He further notes that the cryptocurrency could bottom out in November or December 2022, just like in 2018.<\/p>\n $BTC<\/a> Bottom Analysis<\/p>\n Comparing to 2018 & 2022 Bear market<\/p>\n \u2022Support Getting Weak – TrendLine Manipulation – Midterm Elections – Post Midterm Elections Dump – #BTC<\/a> Bottom \u2022Retweet Appreciated #cryptocurrency<\/a> #Crypto<\/a> #ETH<\/a> $ETH<\/a> #Binance<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/GHDiHu4H3H<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Aditya Siddhartha Roy\u2741 (@Adityaroypspk) October 16, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n The bearish prediction surfaces as Bitcoin\u2019s correlation with U.S. equities grows stronger<\/a> in the wake of the Federal Reserve\u2019s monetary policies. Both markets have witnessed sharp drawdowns<\/a> in the period of the U.S. central bank\u2019s rate hikes in 2022.<\/p>\n Historically, in 17 of the 19 midterms since 1946, the stock market has performed better in the six months after an election than in the six months following it.<\/p>\n That is primarily due to the market\u2019s expectations of higher government spending from a new Congress, notes<\/a>\u00a0Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab\u2019s chief investment strategist, who further argues that 2022 could yield a different outcome.<\/p>\n \u201cAn additional infusion of funds seems unlikely this year, given the government\u2019s historic levels of spending and stimulus in response to the pandemic,” she explains, adding:<\/p>\n \u201cThe combination of high inflation, the war in Ukraine, and a lingering pandemic has already made this cycle, unlike prior midterm years.\u00a0With so many other forces at play in the market, I wouldn\u2019t put much weight in historical midterm-year performance.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n As a result, Bitcoin remains at risk of tailing U.S. stocks lower, with the $12,000\u2013$14,000 price target in view.<\/p>\n However, a section of the crypto market sees Bitcoin decoupling from traditional markets, suggesting that the cryptocurrency may not tail S&P 500 into a post-midterm election crash.<\/p>\n \u201cAt some point, the market will be controlled by those in the community that is long-term believers in BTC and very unlikely to sell and the growing global community which uses BTC for commerce,\u201d Stephane Ouellette, chief executive of FRNT Financial Inc., told<\/a> Bloomberg.<\/p>\n Related:\u00a0Bitcoin clings to $19K as trader promises capitulation \u2018will happen\u2018<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n Ouellette\u2019s statement came after the daily correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and S&P 500 dropped to 0.08 on Oct. 9, the lowest in four months.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the number of unique addresses holding at least 1 BTC reached a new record high on Oct. 17, contrary to trends witnessed during the 2018 bear market. This suggests investors have been accumulating Bitcoin at local price dips.<\/p>\n \u201cThe on-chain data suggests those holders are optimistic the market will bounce back, keeping market fundamentals relatively healthy,\u201d according<\/a> to a note from crypto exchange Bitfinex.<\/p>\n Market analyst Wolf offered a similar outlook, citing Bitcoin\u2019s extremely oversold relative strength index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators on weekly charts in 2022, which technically hints at a period of accumulation ahead. <\/p>\n Comparing current structure with 2018 before capitulation is, imo, complete non sense Bitcoin to hit $12K\u2013$14K after midterms?<\/h2>\n
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\u2022Nov-Dec could be bottom for #Bitcoin<\/a><\/p>\nStock market warnings for Bitcoin<\/h2>\n
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Optimistic BTC price indicators<\/h2>\n
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Just by looking at the weekly RSI and MACD differences are notable.
In 2018 RSI was floating at a mid range of 45s, in 2022 RSI has hit its lowest level ever. $BTC<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/3Zyp9DDPA6<\/a><\/p>\n