Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) returned to $30,500 on May 17 amid hopes that a retest of 2017 highs could be avoided.<\/p>\n Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro<\/a> and TradingView<\/a> showed BTC\/USD climbing after the daily close to tentatively build on $30,000.<\/p>\n Still, in a multi-day range, the pair was yet to decide on a meaningful upward or downward trajectory, while volatility ebbed into the new week.<\/p>\n Amid concerns that a major retracement<\/a>\u00a0could take it below last week\u2019s ten-month lows, popular analyst Credible Crypto offered a more optimistic alternative. Based on historical norms, he argued<\/a> on Twitter, thatBitcoin had little impetus to retest $20,000 or lower.<\/p>\n \u201cThe argument for 13K-14K $BTC on the premise that past major bear markets have led to 80% declines from the top makes a major assumption- that 65k was the cycle top,\u201d he wrote. <\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s the same assumption people made at 30k in June \u201821 before we rallied to a new ATH of 65K 3 months later.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n As Cointelegraph recently reported, contingency plans appear to be in place<\/a> already for such an event, with MicroStrategy \u2014 the company with the largest corporate BTC treasury \u2014 even prepared to buy up supply to stem the fall.<\/p>\n Asked whether BTC\/USD could repeat the retracement from its 2019 highs near $14,000 to the $3,600 floor during the March 2020 COVID-19 crash, Credible Crypto was just as skeptical.<\/p>\n \u201cNot expecting that. Is it possible? Yes, but as I\u2019ve said previously a retest of prior cycle highs has never happened before- so I find it highly unlikely,\u201d he responded<\/a>.<\/p>\n For Cointelegraph contributor Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe, it was a question of the United States dollar cooling its bull run versus other fiat currencies in order to give risk assets some breathing space.<\/p>\n The U.S. dollar index (DXY), he forecasted, should come down from its twenty-year highs of 105 points.<\/p>\n \u201cIf I look at the current state of the $DXY, I think we\u2019ll follow through with this scenario. Assuming we\u2019ll be seeing some corrective move, the highs have been swept for liquidity. Losing 103.7 points and I think we\u2019ll get more downwards pressure here -> risk-on assets up,\u201d he tweeted<\/a> on May 16.<\/p>\n Market sentiment data meanwhile reflected the majority consensus across crypto \u2014 that anything could now happen, with bias firmly skewed to the downside.<\/p>\n Related:\u00a0First 7-week losing streak in history \u2015 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-05\/9b7e890a-3eb9-46aa-8d4d-c998f83bf081.png\")
$20,000 retest \u2018highly unlikely\u2019<\/h2>\n
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Sentiment echoes March 2020 aftermath<\/h2>\n
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