Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) starts a new week in an uncertain place facing uncertain times \u2014 is $40,000 now resistance?<\/p>\n The largest cryptocurrency has just closed a fourth red weekly candle in a row, something that has not happened since June 2020. <\/p>\n As cold feet over the macro market outlook continues to be the norm, there seems little to comfort bulls as the week gets underway \u2014 and Bitcoin is not done selling off yet.<\/p>\n On the back of $4,000 in losses over the past four days alone, price targets now focus on retests of liquidity levels further toward $30,000. <\/p>\n It is not all doom and gloom \u2014 long-term hodlers and key participants such as miners are showing a more positive stance when it comes to Bitcoin as an investment.<\/p>\n With that in mind, Cointelegraph takes a look at the forces at work when it comes to shaping BTC price action in the coming days.<\/p>\n The key external event for risk assets at the start of the week is the French election, this was won by incumbent Emmanuel Macron.<\/p>\n A sigh of relief for market players concerned about a surprise victory from far-right rival Marine Le Pen, Macron\u2019s second term is expected to lift French stocks in particular on April 25\u2019s open and the embattled euro along with them.<\/p>\n The European Union, much like the United States, faces a potent cocktail of inflation and plummeting bond markets, with the European Central Bank (ECB) nonetheless not yet taking decisive steps to raise interest rates<\/a> or reduce its near $10 trillion balance sheet.<\/p>\n Bitcoin was unmoved at the Macron victory, and risk assets are already contending with an Asia downturn on April 25 as COVID-19 in China rattles sentiment.<\/p>\n The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong is down 3.5% on the day so far, while the Shanghai Composite has shed 4.2%.<\/p>\n With crypto en masse heavily correlated to stock market movements currently, a repeat performance by Europe and the United States would produce clear directional cues.<\/p>\n \u201cThe worry is the current policy support that the government has already put in place may not be effective because of the Covid policies as activities are subdued,\u201d Jenny Zeng, co-head of Asia Pacific fixed income at global asset management firm AllianceBernstein, told<\/a> Bloomberg.<\/p>\n Even before April 25\u2019s losses, the past week was already painful for equities, as noted by markets commentator Holger Zschaepitz.<\/p>\n \u201cGlobal stocks lost $3.3tn in mkt cap this wk as US equities \u2014 after peaking Thur morning \u2014 experienced steady fall lower as investors seem to reconsider why they have been buying risk assets in world filled w\/so much uncertainty,\u201d he told<\/a> Twitter users on April 24:<\/p>\n \u201cGlobal stocks worth $107.6tn, equal to 127% of GDP.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n A further post flagged<\/a> the so-called Buffett Indicator \u2014 the ratio of total U.S. stock market valuation to GDP \u2014 still being in what he called \u201cproblematic\u201d territory at over 100%.<\/p>\n One component of the macro landscape firmly in bullish mode \u2014 to the chagrin of crypto traders \u2014 is the U.S. dollar.<\/p>\n The U.S. dollar currency index (DXY), after wobbling at two-year highs last week, now looks to be continuing its uptrend.<\/p>\n At 101.61 at the time of writing, DXY is challenging its performance from March 2020, when the Coronavirus crash sent assets worldwide tumbling.<\/p>\n Dollar strength has rarely been a boon for Bitcoin, and the inverse correlation, while criticized by some<\/a>, appears to be firmly in control this month<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cLooks like the DXY dev announced a token burn or something,\u201d popular trader Crypto Ed joked<\/a> in response to the latest move.<\/p>\n For Preston Pysh, host of the Investor\u2019s Podcast Network, something does not seem right.<\/p>\n \u201cWe got the BoJ implementing Yield Curve Control while the Yen is collapsing and we have the FED about to hike 50bps while the dollar is making new highs,\u201d he warned<\/a>\u00a0on April 25″<\/p>\n \u201cSomething sure feels like it\u2019s about to break\u2026<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Bitcoin is looking anything but rosy on April 25. While the weekend managed to avoid significant volatility, the weekly close still disappointed, coming in at just under last week\u2019s level.<\/p>\n This, nevertheless, means that there are now four red candles in a row on the weekly chart, something that Bitcoin has not seen since June 2020<\/a>, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro<\/a> and TradingView<\/a>\u00a0shows.<\/p>\n The downtrend then continued overnight to see BTC\/USD fall below $39,000, a position it maintains at the time of writing.<\/p>\n Traders are eyeing various chart features for clues as to where the pair is headed next, but bullish inklings are decidedly few and far between.<\/p>\n For popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, it is the Ichimoku cloud looming overhead that would cause further losses for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n During Retest 1 #BTC<\/a> fake-brokedown from the Cloud before reversing<\/p>\n During Retest 2 $BTC<\/a> wicked sub-Cloud before reversing<\/p>\n Now retest 3 is in progress<\/p>\n BTC needs to reclaim Cloud as support<\/p>\n It’s crucial BTC doesn’t flip Cloud into resistance to avoid downside#Crypto<\/a> #Bitcoin<\/a> https:\/\/t.co\/dDLtWwzuTn<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/NQfEbS3nAH<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) April 24, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n Popular analyst Cheds, author of Trading Wisdom, meanwhile, eyed a potential crossing under the 200-period moving average on the three-day chart. <\/p>\n This would be significant, he argued over the weekend, as the last time that this happened after a bull run was the bear market bottom of 2018.<\/p>\n \u201cNot a prediction just an observation,\u201d he cautioned<\/a>.<\/p>\n On the topic of December 2018 and its $3,100 floor, Matthew Hyland, known as Parabolic Matt on Twitter, produced further comparisons between that period and the current BTC price action.<\/p>\n On longer timeframes, he said, holding $37,600 is now \u201ccrucial.\u201d<\/p>\n #Bitcoin<\/a> comparison of the 2018\/2019 Bear Market Bottom compared to the current structure BTC has been in since January of this year<\/p>\n ✅Similar Time Frame Crucial $37.6k Holds pic.twitter.com\/kzQhvZUTMr<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Matthew Hyland (@MatthewHyland_) April 23, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n \u201cLooking for that sweep down, at which point i will then be looking for signs of a relief rally to play off from,\u201d fellow Twitter pundit Crypto Tony\u00a0added<\/a> on April 25 as part of his own analysis.<\/p>\n The \u201cchoppy\u201d nature of lower timeframe price action on Bitcoin makes it an uninspiring trade for anyone but the most experienced players.<\/p>\n As such, it is perhaps little surprise that the majority of hodlers are choosing to stay hands-off and do what they do best.<\/p>\n That is now reflected in on-chain data, which shows that the proportion of the Bitcoin supply that has stayed dormant for at least a year is now at all-time highs.<\/p>\n Citing figures from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, economist Jan Wuestenfeld noted that this translates to the supply more broadly becoming \u201colder.\u201d Proportionally, more coins are being hodled for longer rather than spent.<\/p>\n According to Glassnode, the supply now dormant for a year or more has broken 64% for the first time on record.<\/p>\n The percentage of the #Bitcoin<\/a> supply last active 1+ years ago just crossed 64% for the first time ever! The percentage of old coins continues to trend up. ↗️ pic.twitter.com\/Zyj0hyqFti<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Jan W\u00fcstenfeld (@JanWues) April 24, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n HODL Waves, a Glassnode indicator showing<\/a> hodled coins of all ages confirms the trend. Since December 2021, the 1-2 year supply slice has increased more than any other \u2014 from under 10% then to nearly 15% as of this week.<\/p>\n The 3-5 year band of hodled coins also increased its presence in Q1.<\/p>\n It is not just casual steadfast hodlers who are stubbornly refusing to reduce their BTC exposure despite the grim outlook.<\/p>\n Related:\u00a0Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, DOT, XMR, APE, CAKE<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n A look at Bitcoin\u2019s network fundamentals shows that miners are also anything but bearish when it comes to investing.<\/p>\n A frequent story this year, but nonetheless an impressive one, given that price is moving in the opposite direction, Bitcoin\u2019s network hash rate and difficulty are both due to make new all-time highs this week.<\/p>\n Depending on price performance, difficulty should adjust<\/a> up by around 2.9% in two days\u2019 time, setting a new record of 29.32 trillion in the process.<\/p>\n Underscoring the competition to participate in mining, difficulty joins hash rate \u2014 an estimate of the processing power dedicated to the blockchain \u2014 which is already at its highest ever.<\/p>\n Estimates vary by source, but raw data from MiningPoolStats underscores<\/a> the \u201cup only\u201d trend when it comes to hash rate \u2014 a key trigger, some argue, for subsequent bullish price performance<\/a>.<\/p>\n The trend of increasing hash rate is nothing new, having been long forecasted<\/a> as investment continues to grow. <\/p>\n As Cointelegraph previously\u00a0reported, as of early April, 20% of Bitcoin mining was being undertaken by publicly-listed companies<\/a>.<\/p>\n The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\nAsia woes overtake French election relief\u00a0<\/h2>\n
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Dollar strength is back with a vengeance<\/h2>\n
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Weekly chart prints fourth straight red candle<\/h2>\n
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✅Series of Lower Highs and Higher Lows
✅Creation of a higher high
✅Pullback after first higher high<\/p>\nHodlers put in a new record<\/h2>\n
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Fundamentals still point to the moon<\/h2>\n
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